Artificial Intelligence Is Starting to Reshape Global Trade

As the US-China trade war continues to redraw supply chains, the infrastructure behind artificial intelligence — chips, data centers, energy and connectivity — is becoming one of the new drivers of global commerce. The shift is already changing investment flows, trade patterns and strategic industries.

Mg. Yanina S. Lojo - 05/18/2026

For years, artificial intelligence was mostly discussed as a software story — algorithms, automation and digital transformation. But something began to change in 2025. AI stopped being purely virtual and started to leave a much more visible footprint on the real economy.

Behind every large language model and every AI platform there is something far more tangible: servers, fiber-optic networks, industrial cooling systems, electricity generation and massive infrastructure investment. And that is now starting to show up in trade flows. According to the McKinsey Global Institute’s Geopolitics and the Geometry of Global Trade: 2026 Update, global goods trade grew 6.5% in 2025 and reached US$25 trillion, despite rising geopolitical tensions and higher tariffs. That result surprised many analysts, who expected the escalation between the United States and China to slow global trade more aggressively.

The Physical Infrastructure Behind AI

One of the most important findings in the report is what actually drove that growth. Trade in AI-related hardware — including semiconductors, servers and networking equipment — increased by roughly 40% year over year in 2025 and accounted for nearly one-third of total global trade expansion. That is a significant shift because it challenges a long-standing assumption about the digital economy.

For years, the dominant narrative suggested that technology would gradually “dematerialize” economic activity. Instead, the rapid expansion of AI is creating demand for more physical infrastructure, not less. Data centers require enormous amounts of electricity. They also require transformers, turbines, cooling systems, land, water capacity and large-scale connectivity networks. All of that has direct implications for industrial production, logistics and international trade.

The United States concentrated roughly half of the new global data center capacity added during 2025, while China accelerated investment in its own AI infrastructure and industrial capacity. The competition is no longer only technological. It is increasingly tied to energy, infrastructure and industrial scale.

Trade Flows Are Being Redirected

Another key conclusion from the report is that the trade war between the US and China did not lead to a collapse in global trade. Instead, it reshaped trade routes and commercial relationships. Bilateral trade between both countries fell by around 30%, but a significant share of those flows was redirected through third markets rather than disappearing altogether. In other words, global trade continued to expand, but with different partners and new strategic sectors gaining importance.

That also helps explain why Europe has accelerated trade negotiations that had remained stalled for years. Diversifying markets and reducing dependence on traditional trade corridors has become a much more immediate priority. The logic behind the EU-Mercosur agreement fits within this broader reconfiguration of global commerce.

Why This Matters for Argentina

For Argentina, this new global landscape creates opportunities in several areas at once. The expansion of AI infrastructure is increasing demand for energy, strategic minerals and knowledge-based services — sectors where Argentina has significant potential.

Lithium carbonate entered Argentina’s top ten export products in March 2026, according to INDEC data, reflecting the growing importance of strategic minerals in the country’s export mix. At the same time, the knowledge economy has consolidated itself as one of Argentina’s leading export sectors, with exports approaching US$10 billion in 2025.

Trade diversion resulting from US-China tensions is also creating opportunities for new suppliers in several markets. None of this guarantees success. Capturing those opportunities will require infrastructure, investment and long-term policy stability. But the broader global backdrop is clearly shifting.

The AI Boom Is No Longer Only About Technology

The broader shift goes well beyond Silicon Valley or the technology sector. Artificial intelligence is increasingly shaping investment decisions, energy demand, industrial policy and trade flows. It is beginning to alter which sectors gain strategic relevance and which countries become more important within global supply chains. The AI boom is no longer only a technology story. It is becoming a trade, infrastructure and energy story as well.